Assessing Circular Economy Performance Across Industrial Sectors: Barriers, Sustainability Impacts, and Future Projections to 2035

Abstract

This paper presents a mixed-methods investigation into the performance of circular economy (CE) practices across five resource-intensive sectors—manufacturing, construction, agriculture, electronics, and municipal solid waste management. We collected data from 50 industries, 15 municipal authorities, and 200 experts through structured questionnaires, expert interviews, field observations, and industrial waste audits. The analytical framework integrated resource input assessment, material flow analysis, waste characterization, and sustainability performance evaluation, with indicators such as the material circularity index (0–100 scale), recycling rate, carbon emission reduction, and economic savings. The electronics sector achieved the highest material recovery efficiency at 88% and a circularity index of 91, whereas agriculture exhibited only 60 for the index due to limited technological adoption. High initial investment (mean score 4.61 on a 1–5 scale) and inadequate recycling infrastructure (mean score 4.42) emerged as the foremost barriers. Implementation of CE strategies substantially reduced greenhouse gas emissions, with electronics cutting emissions by 56% from 8.5 to 3.7 Mt CO₂, and manufacturing by 45% from 12.6 to 6.9 Mt CO₂; annual economic savings reached 34.8 million USD in electronics and 28.4 million USD in manufacturing. Pearson correlation analysis further revealed strong positive relationships among recycling rate, circularity index, carbon reduction, and savings, with coefficients ranging from 0.79 to 0.91. Predictive modelling projected that sustained CE adoption could elevate the circularity index from 64 in 2025 to 90 by 2035, with the recycling rate rising from 66% to 91% over the same period. This research contributes empirical evidence that systematic circular economy practices yield concurrent environmental and economic gains, yet financial and infrastructural deficits remain critical impediments.